Better quality and slight changes of the video.
*Small error: protein odds should be 20^10, not 10^20.*
Anyways, this video addresses all creationist/ID arguments that the ODDS of "such and such event" happening by chance is so small, it must have happened by non-randomly (by design). (eg, abiogenesis, fine tuned universe, protein sequences, genes, big bang, etc) All these arguments commit the Texas Sharpshooter fallacy, and you'll see them all debunked here.
Take special note that I'm not debating the actual probabilities that these people have calculated, regardless how dubiously done. The fallacy occurs independent of how small/large the actual probability is.
MUSIC- Linkin Park-Shadow of the day, and Hydroponikz featuring Chester from Linkin Park-Hard to Breathe
**In case you can't read the notes:**
to those who are thinking "well, somebody has to draw the raffle, right?" Well, that's a false analogy. The raffle was merely an example of a random event. The primordial soup from which proteins form needs nothing but the currents to churn it and make the raffle draw. The dust/air/water molecules that form clouds need nothing more than the wind to move it around. As I've shown with the cloud, leaf, and the gravity example, the TSF doesn't just apply to raffles and cards. It applies to any random event, whether caused by "someone" or not. The only point I'm trying to convey is that it's illogical to say that an outcome was caused by non-random means simply because the odds of it happening by random were small. (Whether those random means is a raffle, deck of cards, wind blowing a leaf, or the pressure systems making a cloud, it doesn't matter)
-reiterating, notice that I never once argued against the odds that were calculated. Whether you want to argue what the odds of a protein forming or our universe forming are, that's up to you. DON'T ARGUE IT HERE! If a billion people participated in the raffle and Judy's chances were a billion to one, it would still be illogical to accuse her of cheating. If a trillion people participated in the raffle and Judy's chances were a trillion to one, it would still be illogical to accuse her of cheating. The TSF is committed regardless how small you calculate the odds to be.
-Also note that I'm saying these arguments are "illogical," and I'm not saying these arguments are "untrue." The raffle could've been rigged, but it's illogical to claim so with this irrational reasoning. God could've created the universe, but it's illogical to claim so with this reasoning (or any other kinds of arguments that I've addressed in my other videos). You can never disprove that God is intelligently designing clouds. However, you can show that it's illogical to claim so.
Tags: Evolution creationism intelligent design ID logic fallacy texas sharpshooter probability chance abiogenesis big bang
![ID/creationism: Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy [repost2]](http://i2.ytimg.com/vi/QwLO3ASs5sU/default.jpg)
